RealTest Strategies / RealTest Weekly Pullback Strategy

RealTest Weekly Pullback Strategy

A RealTest strategy that buys S&P 500 stocks on early-week weakness and sells into the Friday close, holding only across the trading week. It works a seasonal pattern that has shown up for decades, where stocks tend to dip early and firm up later in the week. Tested on survivorship-free Norgate data with commissions modeled, and trading live since March 2025.

Beating SPY
$100k grows to $5.6M. SPY only $585k
Steady Growth
Last 18 years profitable streak.
Low Drawdown Period
Strategy remained below 10% drawdown for the last 14.1 months.
Live Market Performing
Performs in live market conditions since 2025-03-10
Premium

Portfolio Growth

+1,025%

5,461.9%

SPY 485.4%

Sharpe Ratio

+111%

1.01

SPY 0.48

Max Drawdown

+53%

-23.5%

SPY -49.9%

RealTest Weekly Pullback Strategy equity curve vs SPY benchmark $100k$300k$1.0M$3.0M '02'04'06'08'10'12'14'16'18'20'22'24'26
Strategy SPY ETF

Strategy Overview

Why the pattern exists

Short-term buying and selling in the stock market is not spread evenly across the week. Stocks have tended to come under pressure early in the week and firm up into the weekend, a pattern that has held across many years of data. The strategy buys into that early-week softness and closes out by Friday, so it is positioned for the recovery part of the week rather than guessing at direction.

How it was tested

The backtest runs on S&P 500 stocks including names later removed from the index, so survivorship bias does not inflate the results. Interactive Brokers commissions and a limit-order buffer are included, so the equity curve is after real costs. The rule is simple and uses few parameters, which matters most for a pattern like this, and it was checked with walk-forward analysis. Results are shown on this page.

How it fits your trading

Positions are only held during the trading week, so there is no exposure over the weekend and no overnight gap risk from Friday to Monday. It trades often but briefly, which keeps capital moving, and its weekly rhythm is different from a trend or breakout system, so it adds a source of return that does not depend on a market that keeps rising. The rules are simple enough to run without much screen time.

What You Get

RealTest by MHP Trading logo
RealTest Strategy Code (.rts)
Complete RealTest (.rts) strategy code. Import, backtest, and modify.
Trading strategy rules plain text document
Plain Text Rules
Full strategy logic in plain text. Clear rules for implementation on any trading platform.

Advanced Backtest Insights

Stress Test Analysis

Crisis PeriodDatesPortfolioSPY
Dotcom Crash 2000-03-10 → 2002-10-09 36.5% -41.8%
2008 Financial Crisis 2007-10-09 → 2009-03-09 -5.6% -49.9%
COVID-19 Crash 2020-02-19 → 2020-03-23 -4.1% -28.7%
2022 Bear Market 2022-01-03 → 2022-10-12 21.8% -21.3%
2025 Tariffs Crash 2025-02-19 → 2025-04-08 -7.5% -16.3%

Monthly Returns

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotalMaxDD
2000-1.86.26.15.69.0-2.3-0.34.5-6.811.28.94.052.0%-13.7%
20014.3-1.21.92.5-0.6-3.70.8-0.6-17.5-0.60.06.7-9.5%-23.5%
20021.8-2.45.3-0.64.7-2.1-7.31.93.51.0-1.51.55.3%-15.6%
2003-1.2-0.12.05.26.0-0.1-0.64.7-6.27.61.9-0.719.1%-8.0%
20042.6-0.61.8-3.88.01.7-4.22.14.9-1.53.92.017.5%-8.3%
2005-2.95.01.4-1.97.82.40.20.42.50.66.91.325.6%-7.9%
20066.8-1.07.11.8-1.9-0.0-0.81.24.25.2-0.2-0.923.2%-9.0%
2007-4.1-2.7-1.2-0.33.3-1.2-0.43.23.37.70.40.98.5%-8.9%
2008-9.90.26.72.65.01.6-7.7-1.2-2.7-3.10.50.0-8.8%-17.6%
20090.0-1.5-2.0-1.311.10.40.24.25.42.74.22.027.7%-6.2%
2010-5.74.23.5-1.3-7.7-4.36.33.11.8-0.01.93.34.0%-15.6%
20112.03.9-0.83.83.0-1.7-1.2-1.22.61.32.40.215.1%-12.1%
20120.92.04.75.0-3.22.23.9-0.50.8-1.7-2.32.114.4%-8.5%
20133.23.42.80.04.5-0.43.2-0.13.83.80.0-0.825.8%-6.2%
2014-6.33.4-1.05.30.55.6-3.62.7-0.7-6.02.91.03.0%-15.7%
2015-0.92.30.2-4.74.30.92.78.9-3.54.43.13.222.2%-6.6%
2016-2.12.81.0-0.82.53.4-0.1-1.45.8-1.20.31.011.5%-5.1%
20170.94.0-1.2-1.83.20.80.11.01.43.33.83.320.2%-6.0%
20182.7-2.82.3-0.23.5-0.22.51.83.0-8.6-0.3-2.01.0%-14.8%
20191.01.75.5-5.6-0.32.7-0.51.12.62.0-1.50.39.1%-7.9%
2020-1.1-1.00.70.03.27.41.8-1.66.8-1.35.20.922.5%-7.1%
2021-1.2-2.37.32.1-4.5-3.81.00.9-0.25.22.18.014.6%-13.2%
20225.62.73.86.55.7-12.10.81.55.42.52.71.127.9%-14.2%
20230.83.92.94.0-2.34.74.03.6-2.24.12.45.135.3%-4.3%
20246.57.38.0-2.6-1.12.40.56.54.1-5.15.0-2.331.9%-10.3%
20252.3-10.6-1.93.92.80.70.75.33.50.89.20.817.5%-19.5%
202610.5-0.06.0-1.41.93.1-4.316.1%-6.8%
Avg0.51.02.70.82.50.3-0.12.01.01.32.41.616.8%-10.8%
MetricPortfolioSPY
Sortino Ratio0.90.45
MAR Ratio0.69-
Net Profit$5.6M$485k
Expectancy0.47-
Trades51581
Win Rate62.6%-
Max Exposure98.36%100.0%
Best Year52.0%27.0%
Worst Year-9.5%-33.2%

Statistical Edge Verification

Science, governed by mathematics

Live Market Performance
Performs in real market conditions since 2025-03-10
Verified
Statistical Validation
Validated across In-Sample & Out-of-Sample data
Passed
Walk Forward Analysis
Tests robustness across unseen data
Passed
Monte Carlo Stress Test
Resilient against 1,000+ sequence risk simulations
Passed
RealTest trading software logo

Quick start guide

From download to first backtest in 1 minutes

1
You download the .rts file
Click Download
2
You open it in RealTest
File → Open → Select file
3
You import symbols
Click Import
4
You run the backtest
Click Test
OrderClerk automated trading execution interface

Daily Live Trading

For RealTest automated execution

1
Open OrderClerk
Click 'Connect to IB'
2
Import signals
Click 'Import' in RealTest
3
Generate orders
Click 'Orders' in RealTest
4
Execute trades
Click 'Place Orders'

Total daily time: ~5 minutes

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Strategy Details

Style
Mean Reversion
Universe
S&P 500 Current & Past Stocks
Timeframe
Weekly
Side
Long
Entry execution
Limit Order
Exit execution
Limit & Market

Model assumptions

Included in Backtest

Commission$0.005 / Share
Limit Price Buffer0.1% Past Limit

SPY Buy & Hold Benchmark

Does not include any transaction fees, slippage, or management costs.

Portfolio Builder & Simulator

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Instantly simulate how this strategy improves your existing portfolio. Check correlations, optimize allocations, and verify the smoothed equity curve before you deploy.

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Strategy Code Preview

RealTest full source code included in download

RealTest Weekly Pullback Strategy RealTest code structure

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RealTest Weekly Pullback Strategy

$899one-time

Full strategy code and rules.

  • 5,461.9% Portfolio Growth
  • In-Sample / Out-of-Sample Validated
  • Survivor-Bias Free
  • Outperforms SPY Benchmark
  • Fully Customizable Source Code
  • Download Once, Use Forever

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